Mainstream German politicians keep repeating the same mantra: “The far-right will never rule here.” They cling to the idea that the lessons of history, the safeguards of democracy, and the strength of the political center will hold the line forever. It’s comforting. It’s also complete bullshit.
Take it from me, someone who has lived in Germany for 25 years. The German far-right will get into power one day. It might not be tomorrow. It might not be in the next election. But eventually, it will happen. And the longer the establishment pretends it’s impossible, the more inevitable it becomes.
Germany Is Not Immune
There’s this arrogant assumption in German politics: that history inoculated the country. That the horrors of Nazism permanently vaccinated Germany against extremism. But history doesn’t work like that.
Economic insecurity, cultural anxiety, migration waves, global instability — these are the ingredients for far-right resurgence anywhere. Germany has all of them simmering right now.
The idea that “it can’t happen here” is the same complacency that allowed it to happen here once before.
The AfD Is No Longer a Fringe Joke
For years, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) was treated like a sideshow. Angry cranks, protest voters, and political trolls. But that’s not the case anymore.
Poll after poll shows the AfD climbing into second place nationally, dominating the east of the country, and reshaping the political debate.
Yes, second place. They would be the main opposition party, if an election was held today.
This isn’t a flash in the pan. This is a movement with staying power. They’ve gone from “fringe” to “permanent fixture.” Pretending they’ll just fade away is wilful blindness.
The Centre Has Collapsed
Why does the far-right rise? Because the centre parties fails. Germany’s mainstream parties — the CDU, SPD, and the Greens — are seen as bland, out of touch, and incapable of solving crises. Housing shortages, inflation, energy prices, immigration: the government dithers, compromises, and disappoints.
Voters don’t abandon the centre for fun. They abandon it because it’s useless. And into that vacuum steps the far-right, offering simple answers and strong rhetoric.
When the centre fails, the extremists thrive. And right now, Germany’s centre is a hollow shell.
Immigration Anxiety Is Fuel on the Fire
The refugee crisis of 2015 turbocharged the AfD. Every new migration wave, every headline about asylum applications, every story of cultural clash — it’s oxygen for the far-right.
Mainstream politicians talk about “integration” and “European solutions.” The far-right talks about borders and identity. Guess which one resonates with angry, insecure voters who feel ignored?
Immigration is the single most potent weapon in the far-right arsenal. And Germany, with its demographic decline and labor shortages, will keep needing migrants. Which means this weapon will never run out of ammunition.
The East-West Divide
Germany’s east is a breeding ground for far-right politics. Economic stagnation, depopulation, cultural resentment — all create fertile soil for nationalist rhetoric. The AfD isn’t just competitive in the east. In some states, it’s dominant.
The complacent line is: “Yes, but that’s just the east. The west won’t go that way.” Yet another delusion. If the AfD becomes a normal governing party in the east, it will eventually normalise itself nationwide. Regional dominance is the testing ground for national power.
The Myth of the “Firewall”
German politicians love to boast about the “firewall” — the supposedly unbreakable barrier against coalitions with the far-right. Every mainstream party swears they’ll never work with the AfD.
Really? Then why did Friedrich Merz enter into a temporary arrangement with the AfD just before the election to help get a law passed? The law failed to pass by the way. Schadenfreude.
Walls crumble. Firewalls break. Desperation changes everything. When the CDU finds itself unable to form a government without AfD support, what do you think will happen? Principle will give way to power. It always does.
We’ve already seen it locally — the CDU and AfD cooperating in regional parliaments. Once the taboo is broken, it won’t be rebuilt.
Economic Crisis = Far-Right Jackpot
Nothing feeds extremism like economic pain. Rising energy bills. Housing shortages. Inflation. Stagnant wages. Germany’s famed economic engine is sputtering, and global competition is only getting harsher.
When people feel abandoned, they look for scapegoats. Migrants. The EU. Elites. And the far-right is all too happy to provide them.
If Germany plunges into a deep recession, the AfD won’t just rise. It will surge.
The International Domino Effect
Look around. Far-right movements are thriving everywhere. Italy. Hungary. France. The Netherlands. Even Sweden. If you think Germany is magically immune while its neighbours fall, you’re delusional.
Authoritarian populism is the global trend of the 21st century. Germany is not an exception. It’s a domino waiting to fall.
The Media Amplification
The far-right thrives on outrage. Every time mainstream media reports their scandals, their rhetoric, their provocations, it spreads their message. The AfD doesn’t need to dominate the airwaves. They just need to dominate the conversation.
And right now, they do. Every immigration debate, every culture war flare-up, every scandal — it’s framed on their terms. That’s not marginalisation. That’s dominance.
The Myth of Eternal Moderation
The core delusion is this: that Germans, haunted by history, will always choose moderation. That 1933 “taught the lesson.”
But here’s the truth: history doesn’t inoculate. Voters don’t carry historical memory like a vaccine. They carry anger, insecurity, and resentment. And if the far-right speaks to those emotions better than the centre, they will win — history be damned.
The German far-right will get into power one day. It’s not a question of if, but when. The conditions are aligning: economic stagnation, immigration anxieties, disillusioned voters, a weak centre, and global momentum for authoritarian populism.
Mainstream politicians can keep deluding themselves with talk of “firewalls” and “historical lessons.” But denial is not protection. Complacency is not defence.
The choice isn’t between “never” and “always.” It’s between preparing now or being blindsided later. And right now, Germany is walking blindfolded toward a cliff — whistling about how it could never fall.
When it does, the world will look back at all the warnings, all the polling, all the ignored signs — and wonder how the hell anyone thought it couldn’t happen here again.
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